Amidst temporarily avoiding the bleakest possible outcome, the White House and Harris camp remain confronted with a significant peril in the realm of Middle East tensions.
"Apparently, it seems the strikes didn't impact anything beyond military targets. I'm crossing my fingers this marks the end," Biden mentioned over the weekend after getting an update from his intelligence analysts.
This outcome was far from guaranteed at the start of the month, when an enormous Iranian ballistic missile assault on Israel triggered fears of severe escalation, potentially leading to attacks on Iran's nuclear or oil facilities. Nevertheless, if Biden managed to avoid the worst-case scenario in his mind, the more complex issue of the Middle East conflict remains as knotty as ever.
The strike within Iran pushes the region into a more dangerous phase, with Tehran now considering its retaliation for the response.
Biden and Harris attended a call over the weekend with their national security team, receiving updates on the most recent developments in the region according to the White House.
As per the White House, "This morning, President Biden convened a call with Vice President Harris and their national security team to receive a briefing and discuss the latest developments in the Middle East following Israel’s precise response to Iran's ballistic missile attack on October 1st."
Israel has been intensifying its operations in Lebanon, resulting in the deaths of numerous women and children and testing American patience — yet to result in a substantial breakthrough.
The conflict in Gaza doesn't appear any closer to concluding than it did before the demise of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, whose passing Biden had hoped would promote efforts toward a hostages-for-ceasefire deal.
Despite this minor opening, negotiations will resume this week in Qatar. Few expect a resolution before the November 5 US presidential election, making Biden and Harris's inability to bring stability to the region a considerable political liability.
The US was not where they wanted to be in the run-up to Election Day, even though a full-blown war between Iran and Israel isn't imminent.
American officials assume that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sees little reason to end his multi-front operations before the election. Furthermore, there is little doubt in their minds that Netanyahu views former President Donald Trump — whom he has contacted multiple times leading up to Election Day— as a strong ally.
Trump asserted at an event in Georgia this week, “We're going to take care of Israel, and they know that. Bibi called me yesterday, he called me the day before. We have a great relationship. Fortunately, they didn't heed Biden's advice, or they'd be facing a bomb right now. And they did their own thing.”
Speaking before embarking on an infrequent campaign trail appearance, Biden commented he was "not surprised" to learn of Trump's frequent interactions with Netanyahu. He expressed some concern that the Republican nominee wasn't representing the US in those conversations.
Regarding her approach if elected, Harris has presented little evidence to suggest a differing approach. In a recent CNN town hall in Pennsylvania, she was asked about how she would "ensure no more Palestinian casualties due to bombs funded by US tax dollars." She pointed to the newly initiated ceasefire deal without specifying her strategy for achieving results where Biden has fallen short.
When questioned about appealing to voters reluctant to support her due to their frustration over the administration's handling of Gaza by CNN's Anderson Cooper, she explained, "I understand the strong emotions that people have. I don't believe anyone who has seen the images wouldn't have intense feelings. However, many people care about lowering grocery prices and defending our democracy, not having a president who admires dictators and is a fascist."
Her remarks have failed to convince most Arab American voters to back her, owing to her perceived commitment to continuing the Biden administration's policies on the issue.
Abdullah Hammoud, Democratic mayor of Dearborn, Michigan — with a high concentration of Arab Americans — declined to endorse a candidate this week, encouraging citizens instead to "vote based on their moral compass."
"I have yet to find a candidate, especially one from the party I identify with, who has demonstrated a willingness to deviate from the current path President Biden has set us on, regarding the genocide in Gaza and the broader conflict that has now influenced Lebanon," he told "The Hill" in an interview this week.
A tour across the region by Secretary of State Antony Blinken produced no discernible indication that Hamas was prepared to update its demands for hostage releases or that Israel had a renewed interest in reaching a deal.
While a primary objective of Blinken's focus was planning for a post-war Gaza, the necessary steps to reach that point remain as elusive as ever.
For several months, Biden has been unsuccessful in persuading Netanyahu to agree on an arrangement to end the Gaza fighting, which he believes would lower tensions throughout the region and potentially pave the way for wider transformation across the Middle East.
His attempts have been rejected at every turn, leading to significant annoyance and prolonged periods of silence between the two men.
This pattern casts a cloud of uncertainty over the last few weeks, as Biden and his team sought to comprehend how Israel would retaliate against Iran's October 1 ballistic missile attack.
From the outset, they signaled a different tactic than in April, when Israel's successful interception of Iranian rockets and drones persuaded Biden to encourage Netanyahu to "take the victory" and avoid retaliation.
However, the scale of the ballistic missile barrage in this instance differed, leading them to conclude that a response was necessary.
In a straight-up, straightforward series of public statements, the president openly expressed his opposition to attacking Iran's nuclear facilities and suggested against targeting its oil reserves.
During their first conversation in almost two months on October 9, Netanyahu assured that these sites were not on Israel's radar, despite calls from some conservative elements within his government to exploit Iran's vulnerability and strike them.
This marked a unique instance over the past year where Biden's advice was heeded by Netanyahu, although it was for reasons specific to Israel, and Netanyahu explicitly emphasized that his country's decision-making was autonomous and not influenced by Washington's guidance.
A senior US administration official made it clear on Friday night, "It was comprehensive. It was specific. It was precise. It was aimed at military targets throughout Iran. It was meticulously planned in multiple ways, and once again, I believe it was designed to be impactful."
According to the official, "As far as we're concerned, that should put an end to the direct interaction between Israel and Iran."
However, whether this indeed comes to pass, that's entirely beyond Biden's control.
CNN's Betsy Klein and Samantha Waldenberg were instrumental in compiling this report.
(I've ensured to keep the formatting and the snark of the original text)
The complexity of the Middle East conflict remains, even if Biden manages to avoid escalations. (from the original text)
Politically, Biden's inability to bring stability to the Middle East could be a liability leading up to the US presidential election. (created, incorporating 'politics')
Or, in a different context:
Biden's stance on avoiding Iran's nuclear or oil facilities in retaliation is a political decision, signaling a different tactic from previous incidents. (created, incorporating 'politics')
