In the contest for Congress, Democratic candidates are reportedly spending heavily while surpassing Republican fundraising totals during the climactic campaign phase, as revealed by recent financial disclosures.
The pre-election reports covering the initial sixteen days of October offer the final glimpse before November 5, revealing the fundraising and spending statistics of congressional campaigns. Democrats strive to protect their slim Senate majority, while Republicans aim to strengthen their marginal House edge.
Most key races witness increased funding from Democratic contenders between October 1 and 16, outshining their Republican opponents. At this point, neither side boasts a significant financial edge, as campaigns exhaust all available resources in the bid for victory.
With inconclusive results in recent polls, the struggle for Congress plays a crucial role in determining the strengths of either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump's first legislative arm, offering support for their policy implementation.
Senate Democrats' tenacious struggle
Democrats face formidable challenges to preserve their narrow Senate majority. The Republicans' victorious flip of West Virginia's Senate seat calls for victories across all other Democratic-held seats as well as those allied with their party.
However, throughout the campaign cycle, Senate Democrats have enjoyed a substantial money advantage. According to CNN's analysis of campaign expenditure reports, competitive Democratic Senate candidates have surpassed their Republican opponents' spending significantly.
With two weeks until Election Day and early voting ongoing, Democratic Senate candidates in the ten prominent races (excluding Nebraska) have disbursed around $76 million, raised roughly $49 million, and boast an approximate $26.5 million advantage in cash-on-hand, surpassing the combined Republican spending of around $39 million across eleven races.
The most vulnerable Democratic incumbents are positioned for re-election in Trump's former strongholds – Jon Tester in Montana and Sherrod Brown in Ohio.
Brown raised $7.8 million between October 1 and 16, with expenses amounting to $7.9 million, leaving him with $4.4 million ahead of the final stages. Over half a billion dollars have been spent on the Ohio race, making it the most expensive Senate contest in 2024. The Ohio race is currently categorised as Toss-up by Inside Elections.
In Montana, Tester, the last remaining statewide Democratic officeholder, raised over $9 million in the first half of October, spent over $12 million and has $4.2 million left for the home stretch. His Republican opponent, retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, raised nearly $2.4 million, spent $2.5 million, and holds an equivalent financial position. Inside Elections labels the Senate race in Montana as Tilting Republican.
The House war
In the 30 House races deemed Toss-ups or tilted towards one party by Inside Elections, Democratic candidates have spent more than their Republican counterparts, by $190 million to $117 million, throughout the entire campaign cycle.
Three Democratic candidates – Rep. Mary Peltola (Alaska), Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Washington), and challenger Eugene Vindman (Virginia) – surpassed the $10 million mark in campaign spending. All three contests are considered competitive.
The fight for the House majority could hinge on nine contentious seats in heavily-Democratic California and New York, playing a vital role in Republicans' previous takeover of the chamber. In these seats, Democrats outspend Republicans, $58 million to $43 million, with Democratic candidates spending 1.7 million more than their GOP counterparts on average in the pre-election period, though Republicans enjoyed a slight cash advantage as of October 17.
Big funders, colossal donations
The battle for Congress has already attracted substantial investments, with high-net-worth individuals contributing millions to super PACs.
Elon Musk donated $10 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Musk has spent nearly $120 million on the presidential election through America PAC, his super PAC supporting Trump. The Senate Leadership Fund also received $5 million from hedge fund manager Paul Singer, and $2 million from investment banker Warren Stephens.
The fund's Democratic counterpart, Senate Majority PAC, received a $25 million donation from Majority Forward, its dark money nonprofit arm, which does not disclose donor identities.
The Congressional Leadership Fund, the top House GOP super PAC, received another $2 million from billionaire hedge fund manager Ken Griffin in October. Griffin, who has not contributed to Trump this cycle, has provided $16 million to the fund in total this cycle. The group also received $4.5 million from insurance executive Patrick Ryan and his wife, Shirley, as well as $2 million from Singer.
On the Democratic side, House Majority PAC received a $2 million donation from billionaire businessman and previous 2020 presidential candidate Tom Steyer, $1.8 million from philanthropist Marilyn Simons, and $1.1 million from the Sixteen Thirty Fund, a Democratic-aligned nonprofit not required to disclose its donors.
In Michigan, the Great Lakes Conservative Organization, shelling out more than $20.5 million in the Senate election to back Republican Mike Rogers, took in $1.2 million in contributions from the DeVos clan – with $125,000 coming from Betsy DeVos, ex-Education Secretary under Trump.
Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania, Keystone Renewal Political Action Committee, dishing out an impressive $48 million for Republican candidate Dave McCormick, received an additional $1 million from local billionaire Jeff Yass, based in Pennsylvania.
In light of the significant fundraising and spending data revealed in the pre-election reports, the upcoming Senate battles are eagerly anticipated. Demonstrating their financial strength, Democratic Senate candidates have amassed a substantial advantage over their Republican opponents, aiming to protect their slim majority in the Senate politics.
With the importance of every vote in close races, Elon Musk has shown his support for Republican candidates by donating $10 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, demonstrating the influence of big funders in the political landscape.
