The servant exhibits an "unfathomable self-importance."
The recent elections in Saxony and Thuringia represent a significant shift: For the first time, the far-right party, AfD, emerges as the dominant force in a federal state, while the BSW celebrates impressive double-digit gains as a newcomer. The formulation of governments post-elections presents numerous obstacles, and success hinges on overcoming these challenges.
What propelled the AfD to such great success? How will the federal traffic light government, overwhelmingly rejected by more than 85% of Saxons and Thuringians, proceed? And most importantly, what may the future governments in Saxony and Thuringia look like, as coalition negotiations are anticipated to be exceptionally complex in both states?
These pressing questions were brought to the table in an ARD talk show, moderated by Caren Miosga, with the participation of seasoned journalists and a former politician.
Thomas de Maizière, a long-time politician from Saxony and subsequently Federal Minister of the Interior and Defense under Angela Merkel, resides in Dresden. Echoing Miosga's concern, he remarks, "The election results are troubling. However, we must first accept them." In his view, left-wing parties are unlikely to survive, while the AfD will persist, and BSW's position remains unclear. Despite the CDU's narrow victory in Saxony, he expresses reservations about the coalition-building process via the sole authority of the CDU, especially in this state.
De Maizière attributes the AfD's prosperity to the expanding European populist tide, led in part by the right-wing extremist AfD, with disenchanted voters expressing their dissatisfaction with a system struggling to work effectively. The former politician believes it's crucial to address this issue, not only in Germany but also across Europe.
Anne Hähnig, a "Zeit" journalist born in Freiberg, Saxony, observes that these elections have no parallels in previous East German state elections, marking the first instance that a far-right party claimed electoral victory in a federal state since World War II. In Thuringia, the party, spearheaded by Björn Höcke, secures an unprecedented achievement. In contrast, hoping to draw voters away from the AfD, Saxony's Minister President Michael Kretschmer did not successfully shift his supporters to the CDU.
Hähnig describes the election outcome as "significant" and suggests that while a percentage of AfD voters remain unbothered by Höcke's radicalism, some even approve of it, this global power shift and the low priority given to local political issues in polls, further fueling the AfD's electoral success.
Robin Alexander, a "Die Welt" journalist, cautions against the involvement of the AfD in government, expressing concerns about their potential impact on policy and governance. Alexander believes Höcke has no desire to participate in coalition talks, instead seeking to cast himself as a persecuted, rejected figure who delights in his ability to impede broader governance.
Höcke, the AfD's leader in Thuringia, has already earned a reputation for his inflammatory rhetoric, publicly labeling the CDU as "transatlantic vassals." To Alexander, this suggests Höcke's ultimate aim is to strategically assume the role of the aggrieved, marginalized figure, thus relishing in the notion that he is necessary to form a stable government.
Maas, a former interior minister, vehemently opposes any coalition with the AfD, asserting that such an alliance is not feasible with a right-wing extremist-led party. However, he acknowledges the complexity of the situation in Thuringia, where the AfD may serve as a pivotal force in critical matters, such as the election of the parliamentary president or managing daily affairs and order.
Maas, aware of the challenges, proposes adhering to existing procedures, thereby reducing the chance for the AfD to amplify their discord. He suggests voters would not support Höcke as the parliamentary president, yet may opt for another individual to preserve coalition cohesion and avoid granting the AfD the added political capital.
Irrefutably, the outcomes of the traffic light parties in Saxony and Thuringia feature considerable drawbacks. In the ARD talk show, panellists discuss the SPD's impact and predict Dietmar Woidke's chances of being reelected as Minister President of Brandenburg and securing voting majorities.
Meanwhile, BSW maintains the ability to shape the political landscape as a swing vote, holding crucial sway in potential coalition agreements.
In Saxony and Thuringia, the SPD has consistently struggled, according to Maas, attributable to the chancellor's party. "However, it saddens me as a Christian Democrat to have a government that over 70%, 80% of the population deems incompetent," he adds. That's quite a predicament. "It's even jeopardizing democracy, since everyone's aware of it." The coalition appears to be at its end, but it'll linger on, predicts Maas. That's tough in a period when it's about Germany's role in the transitioning global power dynamics. We require a strong government to address Germany's issues, but that's not present.
Henning expresses doubt about Sahra Wagenknecht's eagerness for co-governing the states. "Because governing means submitting to reality checks." Even within the Left party, Wagenknecht has been resistant to government participation. Moreover, she would need to relinquish control over interpretation if the state associations in Saxony and Thuringia were to share power. Wagenknecht may not be keen on that. "But Katja Wolf in Thuringia joined the BSW because she desires to govern. And she leaves no room for doubt that she would like to do so."
"Buckle up"
"It's true that the CDU won't govern with the Left party and the AfD," states de Maizière. That's a party decision. But there's no such decision for the BSW, thus it's the state associations that must clarify it. De Maizière anticipates the coalition talks to be tough. He sees a problem if Wagenknecht wishes to co-govern in one of the states. "It would be quite challenging for me to govern with a communist in a state government."
Robin Alexander summarizes the Christian Democrats' predicament: "The CDU is faced with a difficult choice. Because if they decide in Thuringia to engage with the Left party, it will be maximally exploited by the AfD. That's why they haven't done it yet. But sometimes you just have to buckle up."
What factors contributed to the AfD's successful election results in Thuringia and Saxony? Given the CDU's reservations about governing with the Left party and the AfD's unwillingness to participate in coalition talks, how will the future governments in these states be formed?
